Trade Nbr. 81 - 2007

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on Aug 13th - Closed on Aug13th.Short: 1463.25 -- Initial Stop: 1469.00 -- Stopped: 1469.00 -- Result: -1,00R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III (uncompleted) - Stopped out.

Comments : Bad trade. I entered as the signal was not yet completed in Screen III... Somehow unlucky as well since the market reversed during the last minute of this bar, ie: the reversal was once again amazingly brutal... tough markets..

Trade Nbr. 80 - 2007

Long Sep 07 E-Mini S&P : Entered on Aug 13th - Closed on Aug 13th.Long: 1468.50 -- Initial Stop: 1466.25 -- Stopped: 1466.25 -- Result: -1,0R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out.

Comments: Reversal was brutal, no way to exit in order to reduce the risk....

Trade Nbr. 79 - 2007

Short Sep 07 Crude Oil: Entered on August 10th - Closed on August 10th.

Short: 70.64 -- Initial Stop: 70.89 -- Stopped: 70.89 -- Result: -1,00R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out..

Comments : Difficult trade, the reversal was too quick to allow a better exit.....

Trade Nbr. 78 - 2007

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on August 6th - Closed on August 6th.Short: 1446.50 -- Initial Stop: 1451.50 -- Covered: 1437.00 -- Result: 1,90R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Covered as the market did its move too quickly and was not followed by a rally in Bonds and Yen.....

Comments : Good trade. Exit was good, I noticed that something was different than previous days' sell-offs..

On Holiday this week !!

I am taking the week off and will be back next week.

Wishing all a good trading week !!

Trade Nbr. 77 - 2007

Short Nov 07 Soybeans: Entered on July 27th - Closed on July 27th.
Short: 839 4/8 -- Initial Stop: 844 6/8 -- Covered: 843 2/8-- Result: -0,72R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - (Late) Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped by my trailing stop.

Comments : Bad trade. Entry was "forced" : I entered too late and then I was unlucky with the trailing stop. The market reversed in a few seconds just as I was adjusting my trailing stop from the 843 2/8 level down to 840 2/8 once the previous candle was completed....This would have reduced the loss to almost nothing....

Grading for Trades nbr. 51 to 75

As mentioned in previous posts, one of the key element in improving as a trader is to continually monitor the performance over a meaningful number of trades. Grading every 25 trades should help me identify if there are some particular systematic weaknesses that are apparent in my trading. The idea is to measure if I reach a target that gives me a sustainable edge over the long run. The key statistics that define such an edge are the following:

1. Percentage of winning trades: The objective is to achieve a minimum of 60% winning trades.

2. Average win/loss: The objective is to achieve a minimum ratio of 1,5 to 1.

3. 3 biggest wins/3 biggest losses: The objective is to achieve an average of minimum 2 to 1.

4. Biggest win/biggest loss: The objective is to achieve a minimum of 3 to 1.


Nbr. 1 and 2 are given equal weighting (36 out of 100 for each), followed by nbr.3 (16 out of 100) and the lowest weighting for nbr.4 (12 out 100). Anytime I reach the 100 mark over 25 trades, I have achieved my minimum trading objective, anything above indicates that I am on top of my game !!

Once this quantitative evaluation has been completed, I am reviewing each and every one of the 25 trades from my diary with the objective of identifying recurrent patterns, both in my strategy and the execution of the plan. This qualitative analysis should help me to continually look for improvements in my strategy and identify early enough if I need to adapt to changing my game plan. It is, as well, the way to adress recurrent problems regarding the execution of the trading plan and psychological issues that may have occured during the period. With this diagnosis, my aim is to objectively look at the quality of my work and to identify what has to be improved to continue growing as a trader.

Herebelow are the 3 gradings I did sofar since the beginning of the year.



Trades 51 to 75 have been slightly better than the previous 25 but again have not been above the 100 mark, confirming that my trading is still slightly erratic. I have experienced again a serious drawdown during this period (trades 63 to 70). This series of losses has basically been due to the fact that I tried to take signals from a "quicker" timeframe than the usual (using volume-based candles) in order to generate a higher frequency of signals. As soon as I came back to my usual intra-day timeframes, thinks went back to "normal".


Accumulated equity curve since Jan 1st in Rs:

Trade Nbr. 76 - 2007

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on July 25th - Closed on July 25th.
Short: 1521.50 -- Initial Stop: 1526.50 -- Covered: 1515.75-- Result: 1,15R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Covered as the market was printing multiple tails close to the oversold area (lower enveloppe in Screen II).

Comments : Good trade. Exit was good, the market rallied hard later in the day. I took what the market had to give...

Trade Nbr. 75 - 2007

Long Sep 07 T-Notes: Entered on July 25th - Closed on July 25th.Long: 106'15 -- Initial Stop: 106'11 -- Sold: 106'19 -- Result: 1,0R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 2 in Screen III - Sold as the market began to reverse due to the bearish divergence in Screen I.

Comments: Solid trade. Good exit. The key was to be extra cautious due to the bearish divergence in Screen I that was indicating a potential loss of momentum...

Trade Nbr. 74 - 2007

Long Sep 07 T-Notes: Entered on July 24th - Closed on July 24th.
Long: 106'09.5 -- Initial Stop: 106'06 -- Sold: 106'16.5 -- Result: 2,0R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 2 in Screen III - Sold few minutes before the close...

Comments: Solid trade. Good entry and good position management...

Trade Nbr. 73 - 2007

Long Sep 07 T-Notes: Entered on July 24th - Closed on July 24th.Long: 106'09.5 -- Initial Stop: 106'06.5 -- Sold: 106'08.5 -- Result: -0,33R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Sold as the market was reversing fast right after my entry...

Comments: Solid trade. The reversal was very agressive but I had time to bail out before my initial stop was hit reducing my loss..

Trade Nbr. 72 - 2007

Short Dec 07 Corn: Entered on July 23th - Closed on July 23th.Short: 326.75 -- Initial Stop: 339.75 -- Stopped: 325.75-- Result: 0,33R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 2 in Screen III - Covered few minutes before the close as the market was not going lower...

Comments : Good trade. Exit was ok. I was slightly slow for the entry, could have improved this trade's result with a sharper entry....

Trade Nbr. 71 - 2007

Short Dec 07 Corn: Entered on July 19th - Closed on July 19th.Short: 336.25 -- Initial Stop: 339.25 -- Stopped: 333.75-- Result: 0,83R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out by my trailing stop...

Comments : Good trade. Exit was sharp !! I went back to my "slower" timeframe which generates less signals but the "hit rate" is obviously way better...

Trade Nbr. 70 - 2007

Long Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on July 16th - Closed on July 16th.Long: 1564.25 -- Initial Stop: 1561.50 -- Stopped: 1561.50 -- Result: -1,0R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback at value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out..

Comments: Markets have been showing no trendiness... The reversal was very agressive and did not allow me to bail out before my initial stop was hit...

Trade Nbr. 69 - 2007

Short Sep 07 E-mini S&P: Entered on July 11th - Closed on July 11th.Short: 1524.25 -- Initial Stop: 1528.25 -- Stopped: 1526.0-- Result: -0,44R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up 1 in Screen III - Stopped out by my trailing stop...

Comments : Tough trade again. This was clearly not my day !! I lost a total of 3,15R during the day... this is almost a personal record !! (and the maximum I allow myself to lose in any given day..). I will drop trades that show bearish/bullish divergences in Screen I in order to improve the odds of my entries...