Trade Nbr. 42 - 2007

Long June 07 Crude Oil: Entered on April 30th- Closed on April 30th.

Long: 66,26 -- Initial Stop: 65,94 -- Sold: 66,38 -- Result: 0,37R

Bullish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Sold after the previous candle printed a threatening tail and the market failed to break the resistance area around 66,66...

Comments: Good position management, eventhough the bearish divergence in Screen I was indicating that odds were low to intiate a strong move today...... Exit was sharp !!

Trade Nbr. 41 - 2007

Long June 07 Crude Oil: Entered on April 30th- Closed on April 30th.

Long: 66,40 -- Initial Stop: 66,20 -- Sold: 66,35 -- Result: -0,25R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Stopped by my trailing stop...

Comments: Good position management.

Trade Nbr. 40 - 2007

Long June 07 Crude Oil: Entered on April 26th- Closed on April 26th.

Long: 65,73 -- Initial Stop: 65,46 -- Sold: 66,24 -- Result: 1,90R

Bullish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Sold after the previous candle printed a threatening tail as the market was close to its objective in Screen II.

Comments: Good trade. Exit was sharp !!

Trade Nbr. 39 - 2007

Long June 07 Crude Oil: Entered on April 25th- Closed on April 25th.

Long: 65,09 -- Initial Stop: 64.84 -- Sold: 65.74 -- Result: 2,60R

Bullish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Sold almost at the close.

Comments: Finally a good win !! Good position management.

Trade Nbr. 38- 2007

Long June 07 Crude Oil: Entered on April 25th- Closed on April 25th.

Long: 65,12 -- Initial Stop: 64.80 -- Stopped: 64.80 Result: -1,00R

Bullish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Stopped out.

Comments: One more loss .... Amazing !! Five losses in a row.... Statistically I am due for some wins soon !! It is during such times that it is important to make sure one stays focused !!

Trade Nbr. 37 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini S&P 500: Entered on April 24th - Closed on April 24th.

Short: 1485,75-- Initial Stop: 1488,00 -- Stopped @ 1488,00 -- Result: -1,00R

Bearish in Screen I - Attractive value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Stopped by the Initial Stop.

Comments : Another loss with solid position management. Four 1,0R losses in a row..... markets are testing my trading methodology !! The most important thing to remember is that we are in for the long term when we trade and for this reason one only risk a small part of the equity he manages on any given trade. Series of consecutive losses (and wins) are part of any quantifiable edge and this current serie of losses is the price to pay to take advantage of better times to come !!!

Trade Nbr. 36 - 2007

Long June 07 E-Mini S&P 500: Entered on April 24th- Closed on April 24th.

Long: 1490.25 -- Initial Stop: 1488.50 -- Stopped: 1488.50 -- Result: -1,00R

Bullish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Stopped out.

Comments: Position management was good but should pay attention to the strong bearish divergence in Screen I which is reducing the odds that the trend is ready to resume........ Markets continue generally choppy which is extremely unfavorable for my type of trading....

Trade Nbr. 35 - 2007

Short June 07 Crude Oil: Entered on April 19th - Closed on April 19th.

Short: 64,08 -- Initial Stop: 64,29 -- Covered: 64,29 -- Result: -1,00 R

Bearish in Screen I - Attractive value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Stopped out.

Comments : Well, well difficult month sofar. The execution of this trade was good but the market is simply too undecided to allow my methodology to be successful.... The key during such rough time is too keep a very tight money-management and to continue to monitor the markets with total objectivity....

Trade Nbr. 34 - 2007

Long June 07 Crude Oil: Entered on April 17th- Closed on April 17th.

Long: 66,15 -- Initial Stop: 65,71 -- Sold: 65,71 -- Result: -1,00R

Bullish in Screen I (Strength Index was strong as I entered) - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III was not ideal but still valid - Stopped out.

Comments: Bad Exit, should have initiated the trailing stop process once the market printed the threatening engulfing candle right after the entry candle, this would have limited the loss to 1/2 R......

Trade Nbr. 33 - 2007

Long June 07 Crude Oil: Entered on April 13th- Closed on April 13th.

Long: 66,46 -- Initial Stop: 66,19 -- Sold: 66,56 -- Result: 0,37R

Bullish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Sold as trailing stop got hit..

Comments : Good trade. The week has been very hard, but my trading has been solid... Looking forward for better oportunities next week !!!

Trade Nbr. 32 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini S&P 500: Entered on April 12th - Closed on April 12th.

Short: 1451,00-- Initial Stop: 1453,25 -- Covered: 1452,50 -- Result: -0,60 R

Bearish in Screen I - Attractive value in Screen II - Incomplete Entry Set-up in Screen III !! - Covered too late as the bearish set-up was cancelled in Screen II !!.

Comments : Bad trade.... I kept stuck with my initial plan for the day and was not flexible enough to recognize that the odds were not very much in favor of this trade !! I should have paid more attention to Brett Steenbarger's post about the importance of staying flexible in front of the price action: http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/04/strong-opinions-flexibly-held-lesson.html

Trade Nbr. 31 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini S&P 500: Entered on April 12th - Closed on April 12th.

Short: 1448,50-- Initial Stop: 1451,75 -- Covered: 1449,75 -- Result: -0,40 R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered as the bearish set-up was cancelled in Screen II.

Comments : Good exit management.... But frustrating how my market "reading" is far from optimal lately !!!

Trade Nbr. 30 - 2007

Short May 07 Crude: Entered on April 11th - Closed on April 11th.

Short: 61,90-- Initial Stop: 62,22 -- Covered: 61,77 -- Result: 0,40 R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II (at the extreme limit of my conditions though..) - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered as the market was reversing after printing a very threatening tail in the previous candle.

Comments : Good exit management. Entry was slightly agressive since Screen II was not indicating a very attractive value... Solid trading in choppy markets....

Trade Nbr. 29 - 2007

Long June 07 E-Mini S&P 500: Entered on April 10th- Closed on April 10th.

Long: 1456,25 -- Initial Stop: 1453,75 -- Sold: 1456,00 -- Result: -0,10R

Bullish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Sold after the market printed 2 threatening tails and was reversing fast...

Comments : Unimpressive trade !!! Frustrating day....

Trade Nbr. 28 - 2007

Short May 07 Corn: Entered on April 10th - Closed on April 10th.

Short: 363 2/8 -- Initial Stop: 367 -- Covered: 364 6/8 -- Result: -0,40 R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered as the market was reversing immediately the initial weakness...

Comments : Good exit management. Entry signal was weak with Strength Index ticking up agressively....

Grading Trades nbr.1 to 25 - 2007

Performance assesment

The biggest challenge that I am facing as a trader is is to structure a daily routine that aims at creating order in an unstable environment. The only way to do this is to create and follow a detailed trading plan and to keep a diary of every trades in order to learn from them. There are no shortcuts on the way to trading expertise and only a structured, deliberate learning/monitoring process can allow me to avoid chaos !!

One of the key element is to continually monitor my performance over a meaningful number of trades. Grading every 25 trades should help me identify if there are some particular systematic weaknesses that are apparent in my trading. In order to do this, I am computing a number of statistics that should hopefully help me identifying recurrent themes:

Percentage of winning trades
Average win/loss
Biggest win/biggest loss
3 biggest wins/3 biggest losses

Once this quantitative evaluation has been completed, I am reviewing each and every 25 trades from my diary with the objective of identifying recurrent patterns both in my strategy and the execution of the plan. This qualitative analysis should help me to continually look for improvements in my strategy and identify early enough if I need to adapt to changing market conditions. It is, as well, the way to adress recurrent problems regarding the execution of the trading plan and psychological issues that may have occured during the period.

With this diagnosis in hand, my aim is to objectively look at the quality of my work and to identify what has to be improved to continue growing as a trader!!

I'll post my trading performance for every 25 trades in the blog and comment them.

Find herebelow both the grading and accumulated Rs for the first 25 trades of the year...

Comments : The trading performance of the first 25 trades of the year has been good. I achieved a grade of 1,27 which is o,12 above my trading objective of 1,15. This mark takes into account the key statistics of a trading system (% Wins, Average Win/Average Loss, Maximum Win/Maximum Loss and 3 Biggest Wins/3 Biggest Losses).

Looking back in detail, I realize that my initial stops were generally slightly too conservative. I will work on having my stops closer to my entry without affecting my hit rate (hopefully...). The other issue has been too little occurences. This was due to a very busy schedule with the creation of the ATS program and related business issues... I should be able to trade more from mid may 2007 onwards and improve this aspect... Let's see !!!

Trade Nbr. 27 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini Nasdaq 100: Entered on April 2nd - Closed on April 2nd.

Short: 1784,00 -- Initial Stop: 1788,50-- Covered 1/2 at 1784,0 and 1783,75 -- Result: 0,10R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered Half at 1784,00 and then stopped by my trailing stop on the other Half.

Comments: Decent trade - once again the market was not willing to move today....