Trade Nbr. 32 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini S&P 500: Entered on April 12th - Closed on April 12th.

Short: 1451,00-- Initial Stop: 1453,25 -- Covered: 1452,50 -- Result: -0,60 R

Bearish in Screen I - Attractive value in Screen II - Incomplete Entry Set-up in Screen III !! - Covered too late as the bearish set-up was cancelled in Screen II !!.

Comments : Bad trade.... I kept stuck with my initial plan for the day and was not flexible enough to recognize that the odds were not very much in favor of this trade !! I should have paid more attention to Brett Steenbarger's post about the importance of staying flexible in front of the price action: http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/04/strong-opinions-flexibly-held-lesson.html

Trade Nbr. 31 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini S&P 500: Entered on April 12th - Closed on April 12th.

Short: 1448,50-- Initial Stop: 1451,75 -- Covered: 1449,75 -- Result: -0,40 R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered as the bearish set-up was cancelled in Screen II.

Comments : Good exit management.... But frustrating how my market "reading" is far from optimal lately !!!

Trade Nbr. 30 - 2007

Short May 07 Crude: Entered on April 11th - Closed on April 11th.

Short: 61,90-- Initial Stop: 62,22 -- Covered: 61,77 -- Result: 0,40 R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II (at the extreme limit of my conditions though..) - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered as the market was reversing after printing a very threatening tail in the previous candle.

Comments : Good exit management. Entry was slightly agressive since Screen II was not indicating a very attractive value... Solid trading in choppy markets....

Trade Nbr. 29 - 2007

Long June 07 E-Mini S&P 500: Entered on April 10th- Closed on April 10th.

Long: 1456,25 -- Initial Stop: 1453,75 -- Sold: 1456,00 -- Result: -0,10R

Bullish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Sold after the market printed 2 threatening tails and was reversing fast...

Comments : Unimpressive trade !!! Frustrating day....

Trade Nbr. 28 - 2007

Short May 07 Corn: Entered on April 10th - Closed on April 10th.

Short: 363 2/8 -- Initial Stop: 367 -- Covered: 364 6/8 -- Result: -0,40 R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered as the market was reversing immediately the initial weakness...

Comments : Good exit management. Entry signal was weak with Strength Index ticking up agressively....

Grading Trades nbr.1 to 25 - 2007

Performance assesment

The biggest challenge that I am facing as a trader is is to structure a daily routine that aims at creating order in an unstable environment. The only way to do this is to create and follow a detailed trading plan and to keep a diary of every trades in order to learn from them. There are no shortcuts on the way to trading expertise and only a structured, deliberate learning/monitoring process can allow me to avoid chaos !!

One of the key element is to continually monitor my performance over a meaningful number of trades. Grading every 25 trades should help me identify if there are some particular systematic weaknesses that are apparent in my trading. In order to do this, I am computing a number of statistics that should hopefully help me identifying recurrent themes:

Percentage of winning trades
Average win/loss
Biggest win/biggest loss
3 biggest wins/3 biggest losses

Once this quantitative evaluation has been completed, I am reviewing each and every 25 trades from my diary with the objective of identifying recurrent patterns both in my strategy and the execution of the plan. This qualitative analysis should help me to continually look for improvements in my strategy and identify early enough if I need to adapt to changing market conditions. It is, as well, the way to adress recurrent problems regarding the execution of the trading plan and psychological issues that may have occured during the period.

With this diagnosis in hand, my aim is to objectively look at the quality of my work and to identify what has to be improved to continue growing as a trader!!

I'll post my trading performance for every 25 trades in the blog and comment them.

Find herebelow both the grading and accumulated Rs for the first 25 trades of the year...

Comments : The trading performance of the first 25 trades of the year has been good. I achieved a grade of 1,27 which is o,12 above my trading objective of 1,15. This mark takes into account the key statistics of a trading system (% Wins, Average Win/Average Loss, Maximum Win/Maximum Loss and 3 Biggest Wins/3 Biggest Losses).

Looking back in detail, I realize that my initial stops were generally slightly too conservative. I will work on having my stops closer to my entry without affecting my hit rate (hopefully...). The other issue has been too little occurences. This was due to a very busy schedule with the creation of the ATS program and related business issues... I should be able to trade more from mid may 2007 onwards and improve this aspect... Let's see !!!

Trade Nbr. 27 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini Nasdaq 100: Entered on April 2nd - Closed on April 2nd.

Short: 1784,00 -- Initial Stop: 1788,50-- Covered 1/2 at 1784,0 and 1783,75 -- Result: 0,10R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered Half at 1784,00 and then stopped by my trailing stop on the other Half.

Comments: Decent trade - once again the market was not willing to move today....

Trade Nbr. 26 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini Nasdaq 100: Entered on March 30th - Closed on March 30th.

Short: 1787,00 -- Initial Stop: 1796,50-- Covered at 1779,75 and 1788,0 -- Result: 0,35R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered Half at 1779,75 because of the threatening tail of the previous candle and then stopped by my trailing stop on the other Half.

Comments: Decent trade - the market was not willing to give more in this one...

Trade Nbr. 25 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini Nasdaq 100: Entered on March 29th - Closed on March 29th.

Short: 1794,00 -- Initial Stop: 1799,75-- Covered at 17 89,0 and 1779,75 -- Result: 1,67R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered Half at 1789,0 because of the threatening tail of the previous candle and Half at the objective (envelope in Screen II).

Comments: Decent trade. First half exit was not totally valid but I guess that my last 2 trades made me a little more nervous than normal...

Trade Nbr. 24 - 2007

Short June 07 E-Mini Nasdaq 100: Entered on March 29th - Closed on March 29th.

Short: 1794,25 -- Initial Stop: 1799,0 -- Stopped: 1799,0 -- Result: -1,0R

Bearish in Screen I - At value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Stopped by Initial-Stop.

Comments : Bad trade (again) - This time around I mismanaged Screen III (Only 1 screen :big improvement compared to the last trade... :-)). Entry signal was valid but as the entry candle reversed and printed an engulfing candle, I should have closed the position.....

Trade Nbr. 23 - 2007

Short May 07 Soybeans: Entered on March 27th - Closed on March 27th.

Short: 758 2/8 -- Initial Stop: 761 4/8 -- Covered: 759 6/8 -- Result: -0,46 R

Barely Bearish in Screen I - Uncompleted pullback in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Stopped by my trailing stop.

Comments : Bad trade, made many mistakes in this one:
1. Screen I is basically neutral and not bearish !!
2. Pullback in Screen II did not reach value...
3. Initiated the trailing-stop too early !!

Difficult to mismanage a trade in all 3 screens.... but today I achieve it !!

Trade Nbr. 22 - 2007

Long June 07 E-Mini S&P 500: Entered on March 26th- Closed on Mar 26th.

Long: 1444,0 -- Initial Stop: 1440,75 -- Sold: 1448,25 -- Result: 1,30R

Bullish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Sold 5 minutes before the Closing Bell.

Comments : Good trade - Got lucky on the exit as market could not maintain the momentum into the close...

Trade Nbr. 21 - 2007

Short May 07 Corn: Entered on March 23rd - Closed on March 23rd.

Short: 407 6/8 -- Initial Stop: 410 4/8 -- Covered: 403 6/8 -- Result: 1,45 R

Bearish in Screen I - Overbought in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered as the market was printing a second threatening tail...

Comments : Good trade.

Holidays !!!

I will be skying in the Alps next week with my family, so no trading and no posts !!

Have a great week !!

Trade Nbr. 20 - 2007

Short May 07 Soybeans: Entered on March 9th - Closed on March 9th.

Short: 755 6/8 -- Initial Stop: 758 6/8 -- Covered: 757 2/8 -- Result: -0,50 R

Bearish in Screen I - Pullback to value in Screen II - Entry Set-up in Screen III - Covered as the market was reversing the entry candle very quickly.....

Comments : Good exit. All markets have been very difficult to trade this week !!!